After reviewing @Delphi_Digital ’s latest report “Liquidity, Volatility and the Slow Grind Higher: Crypto’s October 10 Reset,” the macro narrative aligns almost perfectly with the on-chain cycle outlook I laid out earlier.
But first, here’s a TL;DR of the Delphi Report
• The recent selloff wasn't a breakdown rather it was a liquidation flush, clearing excess leverage from the system.
• We're not heading into a euphoric rebound yet . Instead, Delphi frames the next leg as a slow, deliberate rebuild.
• Liquidity remains uneven but functional. This means that capital isn't fleeing the market but it's repositioning more selectively.
• Macro signals (strong dollar, steady yields, rising gold) point to a cautious but intact environment, not systemic stress.
The conclusion: Q4 is still poised for upside, but it Won't be A straight line. volatility and selectivity are now part of the ride.
Here's the full report if you want to read it:
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Reading it felt like a macro-level confirmation of what my on-chain indicators already showed.
• I positioned the market firmly in Stage 2 (Mid Bull) with a healthy RSI reset and Delphi describes that same reset as a leverage flush.
• I noted we're edging toward Stage 3 but not overheated and Delphi echoes this, saying the run continues, just not parabolically.
• I warned selectivity will matter more going forward and Delphi frames the coming rally as "not easy risk-on, but smart positioning."
So while they're different lenses, they're definitely the same conclusion.
(See Infographic For Specific Data Points From Delphi That Line Up With My Framework)
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Whether you look at it through macro liquidity (Delphi's lens) or on-chain cycle indicators (this report), both narratives converge on the same truth.
The bull market isn't over rather it's evolving.
The easy phase is behind us, now comes the strategic phase.
Markets evolve rapidly, and so do the signals indicating our position in the cycle. Last month, the data clearly placed us in Stage 2 (Mid Bull) with early signs of acceleration.
Today, we remain in Mid Bull but are edging closer to the transition from Stage 2 to Stage 3.
We didn't accelerate directly into Late Bull; instead, we experienced a healthy reset, particularly evident in RSI and CBBI. This reset allows the uptrend to continue without overheating, keeping the market extendable rather than exhausted.
(See the infographic attached for a summary of Progression: Last Month vs Now.)
Currently, these key indicators are on our watchlist, hovering just below late-stage thresholds:
• Bitcoin MVRV Ratio (72% to 80%+): nearing overvaluation territory.
• Bitcoin Reserve Risk (48% to 55%): indicating a slight weakening in long-term conviction.
• Short-Term Holder Supply (74% to 78%): speculative capital continues to flow in.
• Bitcoin Mayer Multiple (51% to 67%): gradually approaching historical peak zones.
If these indicators exceed 80–85%, Stage 3 will be officially confirmed.
Even with the progression, several macro indicators remain well below danger zones:
- Ahr999 Index (26% to 24%): Miners are still comfortable.
- ETF Outflows (0 days to still low): Institutions remain net buyers.
- Bitcoin Bubble Index (<20%): Nowhere near mania.
- RHODL Ratio (~25%): Still deep in the “safe zone.”
Strategy From Here:
- Ride the trend, as the uptrend remains intact.
- Buy dips with precision; the RSI reset provides entry windows.
- Gradually rotate into BTC/ETH as metrics cross above 80%.
- Trim overextended alts, especially in high-MVRV sectors like memes.
Bottom Line:
We’re still in Stage 2 (Mid Bull), but we are edging closer to the ignition point. Instead of overheating, the market has taken a breather, which extends the cycle rather than concluding it.
If the current momentum persists, Stage 3 (Late Bull) is likely to activate within 1–2 months.
This is the prime time to compound aggressively, but it's also the moment when exit plans should start becoming intentional, not emotional.
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