Institutional view on BTC
Since we're in an institutional cycle, makes sense to focus on fund flows and interest. Here's what I've noticed:
- Negative Coinbase premium (April, late July and August) coincided with local declines. Coinbase Premium drops or goes negative = price falls.
- High premium amplitude used to signal impulses, now amplitude is low = inertial sideways without bias.
- CME OI growth in spring + ETF growth = sustained uptrend. Since mid-July CME OI declining and ETF flat = less upside initiative than downside.
For confident growth need:
- CB Premium to return with same high and stable bars as July
- Stable ETF inflows and CME OI growth
- Hold above 113k on 1D chart
Though not institutional-related, Heatmap shows interest zones at 105-108k, would buy at these levels if price drops there, like after FOMC.
h/t @kiyotaka_ai
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