[The 2025 halving bull market has entered the middle and late stages: the rhythm of the BTC halving cycle is shifting to structural rotation] 1. BTC: The rise after the halving is cashing out and is in the top construction stage Trend review: BTC has risen by more than 80% since the halving in April 2024, quickly rushed to $120,000 after breaking through the previous high of 69,000 in March 2025, and then fluctuated downward, currently hovering around 109,000. Chart signals: The RSI has fallen below 50 many times on the daily chart, and the MACD death cross continues to diverge, and it is in a weak repair in the short term, and it has not yet confirmed that it will stop falling. Technical tipping point: The $100,000 mark is the psychological defense line of the market and a key indicator of whether the "halving driving logic" continues in this round. 🔍 Research conclusion: BTC is likely to have entered the "platform top shock" stage at a high level, and whether it will break out of the second peak depends on two major variables: (1) Whether institutional incremental funds (ETF holdings, sovereign fund entry) are durable; (2) Whether macro risks (interest rate cuts, US stock market turmoil) trigger market turns. 2. ETH: Short-term weakness, but the long-term trend has not changed Trend characteristics: ETH took the lead in breaking through the 2021 high, leading the rise throughout May~July, but recently fell back from a high level, indicating that the upward momentum has weakened. Technical signals: MACD began to weaken, the daily RSI is still in the neutral upper range, if it cannot quickly recover the 4600~4700 area in the short term, it may fall into a box shock. The logic behind it: ETH has long-term value supported by ETF expectations and the expansion of the L2 ecosystem, but it has basically realized the benefits in advance. 🔍 Research conclusion: ETH has completed the stage of "valuation reshaping + belief strengthening" and may enter a volatile trend that is not synchronized with BTC, relying more on on-chain activity and continuous expansion of L2/modularity. 3. SOL: The structural replenishment market is starting Trend structure: Unlike BTC/ETH, SOL has not yet broken through its all-time high and is currently in a range of $200~$240 below the top of 2021. Technical signals: The daily three-moving average is in a bullish position, the MACD golden cross is upward, and the RSI remains strong, indicating a relatively healthy uptrend. Capital flow characteristics: Emerging narratives such as NFTs, GameFi, and DePIN have been implemented on Solana in turn, driving a rapid recovery in on-chain TVL and transaction activity. 🔍 Research conclusion: SOL is likely to be taking on the role of "structural rotation to make up for the rise" in this cycle, and if BTC/ETH maintains a sideways movement, its momentum to reach new highs will be stronger. Fourth, the sign of structural rotation: the bull market is no longer driven by a single driver Combining charts and market behavior, there are several "new trends" worth noting: (1) The rotation of sector heat is accelerated: The accelerated pace of capital rotation from BTC → ETH → SOL / TRX means that the market as a whole is at a high level but lacks a unified direction, and speculative funds tend to "look for rotation depressions". (2) ETH and BTC no longer resonate: The synchronicity between ETH and BTC declined after the halving, indicating that the bull market momentum is no longer driven by a single pole, but rather a compound logic of the on-chain ecology and macro events. (3) TRX stablecoin ecosystem silently increases: Although the price performance is moderate, TRX's recent on-chain stablecoin circulation has steadily expanded, and the DeFi fundamentals have strengthened, indicating that its "settlement network" attribute has been recognized in this cycle, and the trend is more defensive. 5. What paths may the market evolve into next? 🔹 Path 1: Top Build → Sideways Oscillation → Sector Rotation (Most Likely) BTC has fluctuated around the range of 100,000 to 110,000 for a long time, mainstream currencies have stagnated, and sectors such as SOL, TRX, AI, RWA and other sectors have rotated to make up for the rise as the main line. Strategic suggestions: Reduce leverage, chase less high, focus on structural opportunities, and choose a narrative track with "still space" to participate in the rotation. 🔹 Path 2: Emotional outburst → Re-summit → Full acceleration (moderate probability) If BTC can strongly break through 120,000 and drive ETH to a new high, the market may enter the last wave of "FOMO main upward stage", and the bull market climax will be extended by several weeks to two months. Strategy suggestion: Set a take-profit line, flexibly add or subtract positions, and retain the bottom position to participate, but do not blindly chase highs. 🔹 Path 3: Weak downside → High retracement → Comprehensive cooling (low probability but high lethality) If BTC falls below the key support of 100,000, coupled with macro risks or policy uncertainty, the market may quickly switch to a "retracement-defense" mode, killing valuation and liquidity. Strategy advice: Quickly withdraw from short-term speculative positions, keep only long-term bottom positions, and wait for a new round of market structure confirmation. 6. Summary: The bull market is not dead, but the tactics need to change The bull market in 2025 is not over, but the rhythm has quietly changed. The market push brought about by the Bitcoin halving has entered the cashing period, and the next core keywords are: Rotation, structure, differentiation, cashing, prudence. If you are a speculator, now is the time to defend; If you are a long-termist, now is the best window for structural restructuring and value exchange. The last dance of the bull market may not belong to BTC, but to those who still have room for "replenishment".