6.6 BTC and ETH Midday Market Update｜ BTC dipped as low as 59080, briefly breaking below the key 60,000 level but then recovering. Looking at the 4-hour and daily candlesticks, no candle actually closed below 60,000 — this is a false breakdown. However, the daily low of 59888 was indeed pierced, which is not a good sign. Now all eyes are on the 62207 level. Only when the price firmly closes above 62207 can we talk about stopping the decline and a potential rebound. If it can't hold above this level, it will likely retest 59080, and if that fails, the next support to watch is 57616. If volume surges and price breaks above 61657, I will add to my long position, targeting 63065 first, then 64468. If volume pushes price below 60364, wait for a pullback and failure to reclaim before considering shorts, otherwise the risk-reward isn't favorable. Don't ask me if you can catch the bottom — I'm already allergic to the word "bottom." Resistance: 61657 / 63065 / 64468 Support: 60157 / 59080 / 57616 In short: If 62207 doesn't hold, all longs are just guesses. Keep positions light, cut losses quickly, don't hold on. As for ETH, it's even worse than BTC; its structure has been smashed. 1621 is its last respectable level. Only when it climbs back above 1621 can we look for a rebound. If it can't, breaking 1550 means a direct drop to 1484. Volume breakout above 1607 on the right side is a signal to chase longs with a stop loss; volume breakdown below 1573 on the right side is a signal to chase shorts with a stop loss. If it retests 1535 and holds, consider a small long; break below 1493 means exit longs immediately. On the left side, if it dips, place a long at 1482 with a stop loss at 1452. Short at 1681 with a stop loss if it breaks above 1716. Resistance: 1607 / 1654 / 1681 Support: 1534 / 1484 / 1452 By the way, take a look at the ETH/BTC rate — it's crashed badly. Without a rebound in the rate, ETH will always be weaker than BTC, just keep that in mind. Don't pretend to be the smartest during a one-sided downtrend; entering on the right side is more sustainable than trying to catch the bottom on the left. My own rule: no more than two trades per day; if I lose two trades, I shut the software and go pet my cat or play games. A false breakdown is not a bottom; only a true hold counts. The two key levels are 62207 and 1621 — if you don't get in, just watch. The market is tough, but you're not alone. Don't hold losses, don't get cocky with profits. We're here to survive until the next bull run. $BTC $ETH

Can't stop laughing, this isn't an international negotiation, it's a global major schizophrenia scene. Trump says "done," Iran says "collapsed," both sides talking past each other, not even bothering to align on a unified script. #美伊谈判：解冻$240亿成关键 The most surreal moment yesterday: Trump said at a campaign rally that the US-Iran talks "have made great progress" and the agreement "could be signed by the end of this week." Meanwhile, Iran's Supreme Leader's advisor Rezaei told CNN directly: "The talks are deadlocked, the ball is on Trump's side." Both sides are telling the world completely opposite things, essentially neither wants to admit they've made concessions first. Now all issues are stuck on that $24 billion. Iran insists: on the day the agreement is signed, $12 billion must be unfrozen first, the remaining $12 billion to be given later. Not a penny upfront, nothing else to discuss. They repeatedly emphasize "this is our own money, not America's." Trump's side is in trouble. He used to criticize Obama daily for sending money to Iran, now he has to unfreeze $24 billion, which will definitely cause an uproar among domestic Republican conservatives and Israel. Some in the House have already threatened impeachment if he dares to unfreeze. He's blocked on both ends: no compromise means the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, oil prices won't drop, inflation can't be controlled, and the November election is basically lost. Compromise means losing half his base. Even scarier, Iran issued a harsh warning yesterday: if talks break down and war restarts, the battlefield won't be limited to Hormuz but will directly expand to the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Indian Ocean. This is definitely not an empty threat. The Houthi forces already control the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and with one order from Iran, the world's two most critical oil chokepoints would be simultaneously cut off. Hormuz accounts for 30% of global crude oil transport, Bab el-Mandeb accounts for 12%. Both closed together, what does that mean? Currently, just closing Hormuz has Brent crude hovering between $90-100. Closing both, ExxonMobil's previous warning of $150-160 oil prices is definitely not alarmist. Moreover, this inflation will be much worse than the 2022 Ukraine war spike. Last time it was just energy prices rising; this time it's energy plus global shipping paralyzed simultaneously. Logistics costs for all goods will double, from chips to food, nothing will be spared. Now it depends on whether Trump dares to take this gamble. He wants to rely on a ceasefire to lower oil prices and win votes, but the price Iran demands is something he simply can't cover domestically. Both sides are applying maximum pressure, waiting for the other to blink first. But the biggest losers will always be the global markets and ordinary people. $BZ $CL

This chip stock crash basically boils down to blaming the pen for failing the exam. Stop using Rubin's cutbacks as an excuse, seriously. The reason for this massive sell-off is definitely not Nvidia's hardware. #英伟达利空落地 Serenity Macro's analysis really hit the nail on the head: the core issue is that May's non-farm payrolls doubled, pushing the Fed's rate hike probability this year from 25% to 98%. In a high-interest-rate environment, whoever has a high valuation gets hit first. The chip sector has risen 75% this year, naturally becoming the top target for rate hike expectations. Rubin's halving of memory orders is just a perfect excuse for funds to offload. If this attribution is correct, then the bottom of this adjustment doesn't depend on what configuration Nvidia's next-gen chips use, but solely on when rate hike expectations peak. What's more interesting is the sector's rhythm has changed. Last week, Jensen Huang casually said Marvell could be the next trillion-dollar company, instantly driving a 32% single-day surge, adding over $60 billion in market cap in one day. At that time, the entire AI hardware chain was rising in a chain reaction; whoever had catalysts soared. But this week, the tone abruptly shifted. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 10.26% in one day, the largest drop since the 2020 circuit breaker, wiping out over $1 trillion in market cap across the sector in a single day. No leader was spared: Nvidia fell 6%, Micron 11%, and even last week's strongest, Marvell, dropped 12%. The shift from chain reaction gains to collective pressure currently looks more like normal sector rotation and profit-taking within the AI supercycle, but signs have emerged that the market is beginning to reprice the AI capital expenditure narrative. Broadcom's earnings guidance missing expectations was just a trigger; the real problem is that when everyone assumes AI capital spending will grow indefinitely, any shortfall gets magnified infinitely. The situation is clear now: Rubin's negative impact has already been priced in, but the macro negatives are just beginning. $NVDA $MU $TAO

This SpaceX IPO is like a double-edged coin hanging over both the US stock market and the crypto world. One side is a paradise for retail investors' celebration, the other is a hell of a collective stampede. Honestly, this time they really smashed all the old Wall Street rules. Fidelity directly cut the new share subscription threshold from the original $500,000 to $2,000, slashing it by 99.6%, which is absurd beyond belief. SpaceX also unprecedentedly reserved 30% of shares for retail investors, something that has never happened in history. Now the orders have oversubscribed by 2 times, and retail enthusiasm has exploded. But yesterday, S&P poured a bucket of cold water on everyone. S&P clearly stated it will not make exceptions for SpaceX: no shortening of the 12-month observation period, no exemption from profitability requirements, and no easing of the free float threshold. How critical is this? Simply put, after the IPO, without a trillion-dollar passive fund, there must be forced buying to provide a floor. In previous giant IPOs, companies could enter the S&P 500 within days of listing, and passive funds had to buy regardless of price movements, effectively providing a safety net. This time, SpaceX has none of that. Whether the price stays stable depends entirely on the actual buying power of retail investors. The 2x oversubscription looks lively, but whether it’s genuine long-term holding or just short-term arbitrage to dump shares at the open and run, no one can say for sure. This is the first big uncertainty. The second issue directly concerns everyone in the crypto world. SpaceX clearly stated in its S-1 filing that it holds 18,712 BTC, with a cost basis around $35,000 each. It is now the publicly listed company with the largest Bitcoin holdings outside of crypto-native firms, surpassing Tesla and Coinbase. If SpaceX’s stock opens strong or even surges on June 12, the narrative of corporate Bitcoin treasury will receive the largest mainstream endorsement in history. CFOs of listed companies worldwide will watch SpaceX’s financial reports closely, eyeing the unrealized gains from these 18,000+ BTC and quietly calculating. But the problem now is that Bitcoin is in its darkest hour. ETFs have seen net outflows for 13 consecutive days, setting a record for the longest streak, with over $4.4 billion withdrawn. The price has crashed from $74,000 to $62,000, wiping out more than $4 billion in long positions across the network, and the fear index has hit 11 points, pure extreme fear. Funds are frantically pulling out of crypto and flowing into US AI and tech sectors. Originally, SpaceX’s IPO was definitely the biggest liquidity drain for crypto, but ironically, it holds such a large BTC stash that it might instead become the sole catalyst to reverse the funding sentiment. This is particularly interesting. Will SpaceX’s IPO continue to drain liquidity from crypto, or will its Bitcoin holdings pull mainstream capital back into the crypto market? June 12, the coin lands. $SPCX $BTC

HYPE surged to a new all-time high, then quickly followed the market plunge. A $1 billion-level massive position bomb still hangs overhead. #HYPE历史新高后随大盘回调 Currently, the largest single long position in the ecosystem comes from Hyperliquid Strategies. They directly hold 23.7 million HYPE tokens, with unrealized profits now exceeding $1.1 billion. Honestly, this scale is truly terrifying. This is not something an ordinary whale dumping can compare to; it’s a top-tier chip that can influence short-term price movements. The biggest tail risk now basically lies here. As long as BTC continues to weaken and breaks key support levels, no need to overthink. This $10 billion-level unrealized profit position could trigger profit-taking at any time. Once concentrated selling occurs, market liquidity simply can’t withstand it, and a chain reaction downward is inevitable. But objectively speaking, HYPE’s resilience this round is really top-notch. Even if the overall market falls broadly, it still steadily outperforms BTC. The 30-day gain so far remains above 50%. But the old rule in the circle is, the more exaggerated the gains, the scarier the accumulated profit-taking pressure. This is also the biggest contradiction right now. The hard-earned 10th place in market cap is actually not stable at all. Whether it can hold depends not on retail sentiment. It depends on whether institutions and whales choose to continue locking in their positions at this high level or cash out and run. In short, HYPE is currently in a phase of high returns and high risks coexisting. The market looks strong, but there’s a clear whale bomb hanging overhead. For those holding positions, it’s recommended to honestly move up stop losses and prioritize securing profits. For those not on board yet, don’t blindly bottom-fish or chase highs; wait for a full correction to digest profit-taking first. The market never lacks opportunities; don’t force a gamble during a risk window. $HYPE $BTC $ETH

Don't be fooled into going all-in by deep overselling! On-chain liquidations are still running wild, entering now means immediately facing continuous drops. The current market data is truly rare. ETH's RSI has dropped directly to 13.29. This value is an unprecedented historical low. #BTC与ETH极端超卖，链上清算加速 Even looking back at the harshest liquidation bear market in 2022, the extreme lows back then never reached this level of overselling. This is definitely a historically deep oversold market, that's certain. But to be honest, experienced traders understand this: Extreme overselling is only the baseline threshold for a rebound. It can only be considered a necessary condition, not a sufficient one to blindly go long. Whether this position can stabilize and recover depends mainly on one indicator: whether on-chain liquidations have been fully cleared. Also, let's focus on Majhi's position status, which the community is watching closely. Since holding the position from last November until now, cumulative unrealized losses have reached 30 million USD. No active stop-loss cuts have been made throughout, only passive liquidations in batches by the market. Those familiar with large holders' order books know that passive forced liquidations of accounts this large are key signals of deleveraging. In normal market trends, such batch liquidations basically mean the high-leverage bubble on the exchange is about to be fully squeezed out. Most likely, this is the final stage of leverage clearing. However, the current market cannot be too optimistic, this must be warned. We cannot rule out that this is only the first round of a stampede. If prices continue to crash, there will be mass triggering of leverage among small and medium accounts, leading to a new round of chained liquidation selling pressure. Now BTC is following ETH into a deep oversold structure, and the speed of on-chain liquidations across the network is still accelerating, selling pressure hasn't stopped. The conditions for a technical rebound have actually long been met. But continuous liquidation pressure is suppressing the market, preventing sustained moves. So at this stage, do not go heavy and blindly chase the dip. You can lightly speculate with small positions on an oversold rebound, which is not a big problem. The truly prudent approach is to be patient. Wait until on-chain liquidation data clearly cools down and selling pressure is fully released, then gradually increase positions and plan your layout, which will have a much higher margin of safety. $ETH $BTC $SOL

This long-overdue official audit is unlikely to change the current market's cautious attitude towards ZEC. To be honest, ZEC's biggest moat has always been its privacy encryption mechanism. But this time, it's really ironic. Its core privacy feature has instead become the biggest flaw in this security check, completely unavoidable. #ZEC：官方今日公布Orchard供应审计 The privacy architecture itself blocks complete on-chain traceability data. The current cryptographic system simply cannot 100% prove that the vulnerabilities over the past four years have never been exploited. This is a fundamental structural issue, not something that can be smoothed over by updating audit methods. Even though the official used a brand-new audit model this time, it still cannot overcome the inherent verification blind spots. So relying solely on this audit report to completely dispel market concerns and rebuild confidence is basically unrealistic. The vulnerability that has lurked for four whole years was finally detected with the help of AI. This detail really reveals a lot. In the privacy coin sector over the years, security audits have basically relied on manual checks. The ceiling of this old model is too low and has long failed to keep up with the current pace of hacker attacks, causing a serious disconnect. This time, ZEC proactively disclosed the Orchard supply audit, which on the surface looks like the project team is doing crisis management and stabilizing the market. On a larger scale, this is definitely a critical turning point for the privacy coin sector. Going forward, the entire sector will have to reanalyze security models and overturn the previously rough security judgment logic. Needless to say, the valuation logic and fundamental evaluation criteria for privacy coins will undergo a thorough reshaping because of this event. $ZEC

Never expected that this round of non-farm payrolls would completely overturn the entire macro market. This non-farm payroll report is truly a bombshell. It's not the slight correction the market anticipated; it directly released extremely strong employment data, completely reversing the previous macro sentiment. #非农数据公布：就业人口17.2万人，远超预期 The expected non-farm employment increase was only 85,000. But the actual figure landed at 172,000, nearly double the expectation. Honestly, this deviation is beyond the usual fluctuation range. It outright overturned the recent market's weak economic forecasts, showing full resilience in the job market. The traditional market's reaction is the most genuine: gold plunged 3.5% in a single day. All gains made this year were wiped out in one go. Simply put, the global trading logic has completely shifted. Previously, the entire network was anticipating a Federal Reserve rate cut and betting on easing policies. Once the non-farm data came out, the market switched directly from expecting rate cuts to expecting rate hikes. Such a macro-level reversal will definitely not only affect traditional assets like gold. BTC, as a highly volatile risk asset, will certainly follow the new monetary policy expectations. A full round of repricing is inevitable, and the subsequent market will basically revolve around this new macro theme. Additionally, there is a very critical implicit bearish factor that basically locks in all short-term easing hopes. Everyone in the circle knows that the decision power for the October FOMC rate cut has been handed over to Waller. And Waller is a staunch hawk. This personnel arrangement basically fixes the policy tone for the next four months. It's basically unrealistic to expect a shift toward easing policies in the short term. For a long time to come, whether in traditional capital markets or our crypto market, we will continuously digest rate hike and tightening expectations, and all market trends will revolve around this core logic. $BTC $ETH $SOL

Last night's BTC bloodbath was really brutal 24-hour total liquidations across the network hit $1.82 billion Nearly 350,000 traders got cut, roughly 345,399 people To add, about 80% of the liquidations were long positions Basically, those chasing highs and bottom-fishing all got wiped out Breaking down the main coins BTC single-day liquidations hit $620 million Longs $460 million, shorts only $150 million, longs got slaughtered ETH even more extreme, total liquidations $490 million Longs $410 million, shorts just over $70 million Currently, price has pulled back to 61,000 But watching closely, the rebound volume never really kept up It's just a fake pump, don't be fooled by short-term recovery My personal view: this crash is far from over Right now it's just the acceleration phase of the weekly downtrend Short-term small rebounds are just windows for shorts to enter Don't rush in impulsively to bottom-fish The likely next moves are choppy sideways grinding, a slow painful decline Also, many retail traders see the rebound and naively add to positions to break even This was a major cause of the massive chain liquidations of longs yesterday $BTC $ETH

The 60k level cannot be generalized like before. On spot markets across major exchanges, huge buy orders have forcibly built a thick buy wall. Large capital liquidity is clustered and anchored near the current price. The bulls have finally grasped a solid defensive bottom line, the most critical short-term battleground is right here. Simply put, the spot buy orders stacked around 60k are no longer just a psychological support level for retail investors, they represent real, substantial main capital choosing to defend the price on site. Recently, with continuous dips, the market has never lacked a variety of bullish and bearish narratives, what’s scarce has always been actual spot buy support. In the futures market, random price spikes and consecutive liquidations are routine, without large spot capital backing, even the most impressive rallies are hollow and unsustainable. Now, the sudden appearance of a dense buy wall at 60k means big money is unwilling to let the price break down easily. To be honest, a buy wall can’t be treated as an ironclad guarantee; it’s common for main players to temporarily cancel orders to induce shorts. But looking at the current market: Panic is widespread, shorts are heavily concentrated, and the liquidity available for dumping at lower levels has already shrunk significantly. In this environment, the sudden emergence of large spot buy orders is obviously valuable for short-term trend reference. The current BTC market summary is straightforward: If the 60k defense holds, there’s room for a rebound. If 60k is completely broken by the bears, the following decline will be intense. $BTC