6.6 ETH Evening Market Update ETH moves like a turtle climbing a mountain when rising, but like a mad dog off the leash when falling. Today it almost broke through 1500, really impressive. ETH is now testing 1550 again, tsk, every time it hits this level my heart races. I'm telling you, it really can't break below here anymore. If it breaks through, the previous low range of 1504-1484 will basically be gone too, and that will be broken as well. If it gets to that point, the next support level to watch is 1414. If it can hold above 1550 and consolidate, no problem, just a range-bound market. But if it falls below 1550, it's really over, don't hold on. To stop the decline, it needs to stay firmly above 1550. To rebound, it must first push past 1621; if it can't, it's all nonsense. For trading, on the long side, wait for a volume-backed breakout above 1586 to chase longs on the right side, targeting 1622-1661. Remember, it must be volume-backed; don't trust breakouts without volume, those are fake moves. On the short side, if it breaks below 1547 with volume, chase shorts on the right side, targeting the 1500-1454 range, corresponding to the 4-hour level break at 1538. Always set stop losses, don't be stubborn. Above the hourly level, the trend is all down, indicators are basically failing, not much to analyze. But there's one thing you must watch—the exchange rate. The ETH to BTC rate has dropped to around 0.025, a critical level. If the rate can bounce here, ETH can catch a breath. If it can't hold 0.025, the next target is 0.022. Think about where ETH's price would be when the rate hits 0.022. I'll leave it to you to figure out. Set your stop losses well, control your position size, don't get emotional. The market punishes all kinds of disobedience; arguing with the market is useless, just watch the charts. $ETH

6.6 BTC Evening Market Update BTC hit a new low of 59080 this morning, then retested but didn’t break the previous low. At 59813, it stubbornly closed with a bullish engulfing pattern—a textbook-level signal of a bottom, undeniable. So there is indeed a demand for a rebound at this level. But don’t get excited, a rebound ≠ a reversal, those who understand know. This rebound structure is rising on shrinking volume. The volume? Almost none. Pumping on low volume is just playing dirty in my book. I’ll only believe it when it breaks out with volume. The W bottom is almost complete, just one more push needed. Neckline at 61600, to rebound it must break through with volume. Once it passes 61600, 62207 is basically free, then it can aim for 64433. 64433 is the key point of the downtrend—passing it means a higher high appears and the downtrend structure is truly broken. But until then? It’s all just a rebound, don’t dream of a bull market returning. The death line below is 59813. If this level breaks, the previous low of 59080 likely won’t hold. If that breaks, the next target is 57616. I know you want to say, “It’s dropped so much, it should rebound now.” Bro, when has the crypto market ever made sense? The main players love to grind you down until you’re exhausted, then explode the price. Long conditions: Hourly chart breaks above 61369 with volume, enter immediately, set a tight stop loss. Short conditions: Break below 60075 with volume and fail to recover on a pullback, enter short without hesitation. Targets: Hold above 61369 → look up to 63115-64466. If it can’t hold, it’s nothing. 4-hour chart break below 60263, look down to 59080-57783. Finally, some honest words on the daily chart. The previous high zone on the daily chart has been confirmed broken. The daily low at 59847 was also falsely broken once, making a lower low. Now BTC is running within the lower range. Key level: 63046. I give BTC 3 days (excluding Saturday and Sunday, check close on Monday, Wednesday, Friday next week): if it can’t reclaim 63046 → prepare to drop to the lower boundary at 53491; if it can reclaim → daily chart may bottom out. Not trying to scare you, but the daily structure is really weak. If it rebounds, treat it as a rebound, not a reversal. Wait for volume, wait for signals. Don’t open trades without stop loss. Staying alive and waiting for the real bottom is way better than catching a falling knife halfway up the mountain. $BTC

This round of SpaceX IPO is $75 billion, listed on Nasdaq on June 12, with a valuation soaring to $1.75 trillion or $1.77 trillion, surpassing Saudi Aramco. #SpaceX上市超募：散户门槛降至$2000 But there are a few interesting details. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley directly notified that investors from Mainland China and Hong Kong, including private banking clients, are not accepted. The reason is ITAR, the International Traffic in Arms Regulations, which basically means export control of critical technologies. More directly, the SpaceX official website and prospectus cannot be accessed from Mainland China and Hong Kong, showing Error 1009, with Cloudflare saying the site itself blocked access. It's not that you can't buy, you can't even look. Why is SpaceX so special? It's not the first time Chinese investors have been blocked, but previous cases can't compare. Starlink has nearly 10,000 satellites in orbit, Falcon accounts for over 80% of global launches, and Starship V3 just completed its twelfth test flight. Its underlying logic is not commercial, but space infrastructure. The US puts it under the ITAR framework, with a clear subtext: this is not a commercial asset, but a national strategic asset. Allowing foreign capital to invest is equivalent to giving foreign capital the motive to see, touch, and understand the operational logic of this system. Starlink is not just communication, Starship is not just a rocket; this is setting the infrastructure standards for the space era. Once this line is drawn, it will only widen in the future. Even more interesting is Beijing's reaction. At the end of May 2026, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with seven ministries, issued a plan to crack down on illegal cross-border securities trading, completely banning domestic cross-border stock trading within two years, with existing accounts only allowed to sell, not buy. On June 1, the State Council issued new regulations on outbound investment, bringing individual overseas financial investments under supervision. On one hand, they say: this is my technology, you can't buy it. On the other hand, they say: this is my capital, you can't take it out. Two forces collide, with ordinary players sincerely wanting to invest in the most core assets of this era caught in the middle. Are there detours? SCMP listed a few: find US brokers that can trade SpaceX, or buy ETFs like DXYZ that hold SpaceX positions, or bet on supply chain partners. But these are detours, not the main gate. The main gate is already closed. Honestly, this is not just an IPO restriction. This is a demonstration of capital decoupling at its brightest moment. Space assets are classified as national strategic assets, and the two largest capital markets simultaneously cut off this channel. More underlying infrastructure US tech assets will likely be treated the same way in the future. Meanwhile, Beijing is also accelerating the closure of gray channels. These two lines are not fighting but tightening simultaneously. Two sides of the same coin, our generation is witnessing this flip firsthand. $SPCX $BTC $ETH

Can't stop laughing, this isn't an international negotiation, it's a global major schizophrenia scene. Trump says "done," Iran says "collapsed," both sides talking past each other, not even bothering to align on a unified script. #美伊谈判：解冻$240亿成关键 The most surreal moment yesterday: Trump said at a campaign rally that the US-Iran talks "have made great progress" and the agreement "could be signed by the end of this week." Meanwhile, Iran's Supreme Leader's advisor Rezaei told CNN directly: "The talks are deadlocked, the ball is on Trump's side." Both sides are telling the world completely opposite things, essentially neither wants to admit they've made concessions first. Now all issues are stuck on that $24 billion. Iran insists: on the day the agreement is signed, $12 billion must be unfrozen first, the remaining $12 billion to be given later. Not a penny upfront, nothing else to discuss. They repeatedly emphasize "this is our own money, not America's." Trump's side is in trouble. He used to criticize Obama daily for sending money to Iran, now he has to unfreeze $24 billion, which will definitely cause an uproar among domestic Republican conservatives and Israel. Some in the House have already threatened impeachment if he dares to unfreeze. He's blocked on both ends: no compromise means the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, oil prices won't drop, inflation can't be controlled, and the November election is basically lost. Compromise means losing half his base. Even scarier, Iran issued a harsh warning yesterday: if talks break down and war restarts, the battlefield won't be limited to Hormuz but will directly expand to the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Indian Ocean. This is definitely not an empty threat. The Houthi forces already control the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and with one order from Iran, the world's two most critical oil chokepoints would be simultaneously cut off. Hormuz accounts for 30% of global crude oil transport, Bab el-Mandeb accounts for 12%. Both closed together, what does that mean? Currently, just closing Hormuz has Brent crude hovering between $90-100. Closing both, ExxonMobil's previous warning of $150-160 oil prices is definitely not alarmist. Moreover, this inflation will be much worse than the 2022 Ukraine war spike. Last time it was just energy prices rising; this time it's energy plus global shipping paralyzed simultaneously. Logistics costs for all goods will double, from chips to food, nothing will be spared. Now it depends on whether Trump dares to take this gamble. He wants to rely on a ceasefire to lower oil prices and win votes, but the price Iran demands is something he simply can't cover domestically. Both sides are applying maximum pressure, waiting for the other to blink first. But the biggest losers will always be the global markets and ordinary people. $BZ $CL

This chip stock crash basically boils down to blaming the pen for failing the exam. Stop using Rubin's cutbacks as an excuse, seriously. The reason for this massive sell-off is definitely not Nvidia's hardware. #英伟达利空落地 Serenity Macro's analysis really hit the nail on the head: the core issue is that May's non-farm payrolls doubled, pushing the Fed's rate hike probability this year from 25% to 98%. In a high-interest-rate environment, whoever has a high valuation gets hit first. The chip sector has risen 75% this year, naturally becoming the top target for rate hike expectations. Rubin's halving of memory orders is just a perfect excuse for funds to offload. If this attribution is correct, then the bottom of this adjustment doesn't depend on what configuration Nvidia's next-gen chips use, but solely on when rate hike expectations peak. What's more interesting is the sector's rhythm has changed. Last week, Jensen Huang casually said Marvell could be the next trillion-dollar company, instantly driving a 32% single-day surge, adding over $60 billion in market cap in one day. At that time, the entire AI hardware chain was rising in a chain reaction; whoever had catalysts soared. But this week, the tone abruptly shifted. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 10.26% in one day, the largest drop since the 2020 circuit breaker, wiping out over $1 trillion in market cap across the sector in a single day. No leader was spared: Nvidia fell 6%, Micron 11%, and even last week's strongest, Marvell, dropped 12%. The shift from chain reaction gains to collective pressure currently looks more like normal sector rotation and profit-taking within the AI supercycle, but signs have emerged that the market is beginning to reprice the AI capital expenditure narrative. Broadcom's earnings guidance missing expectations was just a trigger; the real problem is that when everyone assumes AI capital spending will grow indefinitely, any shortfall gets magnified infinitely. The situation is clear now: Rubin's negative impact has already been priced in, but the macro negatives are just beginning. $NVDA $MU $TAO

This SpaceX IPO is like a double-edged coin hanging over both the US stock market and the crypto world. One side is a paradise for retail investors' celebration, the other is a hell of a collective stampede. Honestly, this time they really smashed all the old Wall Street rules. Fidelity directly cut the new share subscription threshold from the original $500,000 to $2,000, slashing it by 99.6%, which is absurd beyond belief. SpaceX also unprecedentedly reserved 30% of shares for retail investors, something that has never happened in history. Now the orders have oversubscribed by 2 times, and retail enthusiasm has exploded. But yesterday, S&P poured a bucket of cold water on everyone. S&P clearly stated it will not make exceptions for SpaceX: no shortening of the 12-month observation period, no exemption from profitability requirements, and no easing of the free float threshold. How critical is this? Simply put, after the IPO, without a trillion-dollar passive fund, there must be forced buying to provide a floor. In previous giant IPOs, companies could enter the S&P 500 within days of listing, and passive funds had to buy regardless of price movements, effectively providing a safety net. This time, SpaceX has none of that. Whether the price stays stable depends entirely on the actual buying power of retail investors. The 2x oversubscription looks lively, but whether it’s genuine long-term holding or just short-term arbitrage to dump shares at the open and run, no one can say for sure. This is the first big uncertainty. The second issue directly concerns everyone in the crypto world. SpaceX clearly stated in its S-1 filing that it holds 18,712 BTC, with a cost basis around $35,000 each. It is now the publicly listed company with the largest Bitcoin holdings outside of crypto-native firms, surpassing Tesla and Coinbase. If SpaceX’s stock opens strong or even surges on June 12, the narrative of corporate Bitcoin treasury will receive the largest mainstream endorsement in history. CFOs of listed companies worldwide will watch SpaceX’s financial reports closely, eyeing the unrealized gains from these 18,000+ BTC and quietly calculating. But the problem now is that Bitcoin is in its darkest hour. ETFs have seen net outflows for 13 consecutive days, setting a record for the longest streak, with over $4.4 billion withdrawn. The price has crashed from $74,000 to $62,000, wiping out more than $4 billion in long positions across the network, and the fear index has hit 11 points, pure extreme fear. Funds are frantically pulling out of crypto and flowing into US AI and tech sectors. Originally, SpaceX’s IPO was definitely the biggest liquidity drain for crypto, but ironically, it holds such a large BTC stash that it might instead become the sole catalyst to reverse the funding sentiment. This is particularly interesting. Will SpaceX’s IPO continue to drain liquidity from crypto, or will its Bitcoin holdings pull mainstream capital back into the crypto market? June 12, the coin lands. $SPCX $BTC

HYPE surged to a new all-time high, then quickly followed the market plunge. A $1 billion-level massive position bomb still hangs overhead. #HYPE历史新高后随大盘回调 Currently, the largest single long position in the ecosystem comes from Hyperliquid Strategies. They directly hold 23.7 million HYPE tokens, with unrealized profits now exceeding $1.1 billion. Honestly, this scale is truly terrifying. This is not something an ordinary whale dumping can compare to; it’s a top-tier chip that can influence short-term price movements. The biggest tail risk now basically lies here. As long as BTC continues to weaken and breaks key support levels, no need to overthink. This $10 billion-level unrealized profit position could trigger profit-taking at any time. Once concentrated selling occurs, market liquidity simply can’t withstand it, and a chain reaction downward is inevitable. But objectively speaking, HYPE’s resilience this round is really top-notch. Even if the overall market falls broadly, it still steadily outperforms BTC. The 30-day gain so far remains above 50%. But the old rule in the circle is, the more exaggerated the gains, the scarier the accumulated profit-taking pressure. This is also the biggest contradiction right now. The hard-earned 10th place in market cap is actually not stable at all. Whether it can hold depends not on retail sentiment. It depends on whether institutions and whales choose to continue locking in their positions at this high level or cash out and run. In short, HYPE is currently in a phase of high returns and high risks coexisting. The market looks strong, but there’s a clear whale bomb hanging overhead. For those holding positions, it’s recommended to honestly move up stop losses and prioritize securing profits. For those not on board yet, don’t blindly bottom-fish or chase highs; wait for a full correction to digest profit-taking first. The market never lacks opportunities; don’t force a gamble during a risk window. $HYPE $BTC $ETH

Don't be fooled into going all-in by deep overselling! On-chain liquidations are still running wild, entering now means immediately facing continuous drops. The current market data is truly rare. ETH's RSI has dropped directly to 13.29. This value is an unprecedented historical low. #BTC与ETH极端超卖，链上清算加速 Even looking back at the harshest liquidation bear market in 2022, the extreme lows back then never reached this level of overselling. This is definitely a historically deep oversold market, that's certain. But to be honest, experienced traders understand this: Extreme overselling is only the baseline threshold for a rebound. It can only be considered a necessary condition, not a sufficient one to blindly go long. Whether this position can stabilize and recover depends mainly on one indicator: whether on-chain liquidations have been fully cleared. Also, let's focus on Majhi's position status, which the community is watching closely. Since holding the position from last November until now, cumulative unrealized losses have reached 30 million USD. No active stop-loss cuts have been made throughout, only passive liquidations in batches by the market. Those familiar with large holders' order books know that passive forced liquidations of accounts this large are key signals of deleveraging. In normal market trends, such batch liquidations basically mean the high-leverage bubble on the exchange is about to be fully squeezed out. Most likely, this is the final stage of leverage clearing. However, the current market cannot be too optimistic, this must be warned. We cannot rule out that this is only the first round of a stampede. If prices continue to crash, there will be mass triggering of leverage among small and medium accounts, leading to a new round of chained liquidation selling pressure. Now BTC is following ETH into a deep oversold structure, and the speed of on-chain liquidations across the network is still accelerating, selling pressure hasn't stopped. The conditions for a technical rebound have actually long been met. But continuous liquidation pressure is suppressing the market, preventing sustained moves. So at this stage, do not go heavy and blindly chase the dip. You can lightly speculate with small positions on an oversold rebound, which is not a big problem. The truly prudent approach is to be patient. Wait until on-chain liquidation data clearly cools down and selling pressure is fully released, then gradually increase positions and plan your layout, which will have a much higher margin of safety. $ETH $BTC $SOL

This long-overdue official audit is unlikely to change the current market's cautious attitude towards ZEC. To be honest, ZEC's biggest moat has always been its privacy encryption mechanism. But this time, it's really ironic. Its core privacy feature has instead become the biggest flaw in this security check, completely unavoidable. #ZEC：官方今日公布Orchard供应审计 The privacy architecture itself blocks complete on-chain traceability data. The current cryptographic system simply cannot 100% prove that the vulnerabilities over the past four years have never been exploited. This is a fundamental structural issue, not something that can be smoothed over by updating audit methods. Even though the official used a brand-new audit model this time, it still cannot overcome the inherent verification blind spots. So relying solely on this audit report to completely dispel market concerns and rebuild confidence is basically unrealistic. The vulnerability that has lurked for four whole years was finally detected with the help of AI. This detail really reveals a lot. In the privacy coin sector over the years, security audits have basically relied on manual checks. The ceiling of this old model is too low and has long failed to keep up with the current pace of hacker attacks, causing a serious disconnect. This time, ZEC proactively disclosed the Orchard supply audit, which on the surface looks like the project team is doing crisis management and stabilizing the market. On a larger scale, this is definitely a critical turning point for the privacy coin sector. Going forward, the entire sector will have to reanalyze security models and overturn the previously rough security judgment logic. Needless to say, the valuation logic and fundamental evaluation criteria for privacy coins will undergo a thorough reshaping because of this event. $ZEC

Never expected that this round of non-farm payrolls would completely overturn the entire macro market. This non-farm payroll report is truly a bombshell. It's not the slight correction the market anticipated; it directly released extremely strong employment data, completely reversing the previous macro sentiment. #非农数据公布：就业人口17.2万人，远超预期 The expected non-farm employment increase was only 85,000. But the actual figure landed at 172,000, nearly double the expectation. Honestly, this deviation is beyond the usual fluctuation range. It outright overturned the recent market's weak economic forecasts, showing full resilience in the job market. The traditional market's reaction is the most genuine: gold plunged 3.5% in a single day. All gains made this year were wiped out in one go. Simply put, the global trading logic has completely shifted. Previously, the entire network was anticipating a Federal Reserve rate cut and betting on easing policies. Once the non-farm data came out, the market switched directly from expecting rate cuts to expecting rate hikes. Such a macro-level reversal will definitely not only affect traditional assets like gold. BTC, as a highly volatile risk asset, will certainly follow the new monetary policy expectations. A full round of repricing is inevitable, and the subsequent market will basically revolve around this new macro theme. Additionally, there is a very critical implicit bearish factor that basically locks in all short-term easing hopes. Everyone in the circle knows that the decision power for the October FOMC rate cut has been handed over to Waller. And Waller is a staunch hawk. This personnel arrangement basically fixes the policy tone for the next four months. It's basically unrealistic to expect a shift toward easing policies in the short term. For a long time to come, whether in traditional capital markets or our crypto market, we will continuously digest rate hike and tightening expectations, and all market trends will revolve around this core logic. $BTC $ETH $SOL