After returning from Huaqiangbei in Shenzhen this time, I saw my good brother hoarding MLCC with real money. He told me that this thing is currently in short supply, and those who have stock now are the real winners; the prices for procurement are rising! Today, seeing the whole internet discussing storage, I spent a day researching MLCC 🧐 I decided that with this wave of decline 📉, I will gradually increase my position in Murata (#MARRY), which is the absolute leader in the global AI server high-capacity MLCC market, holding a 45% market share and possessing very strong pricing power. On April 1st this year, it was the first to raise prices by 15%-35%, showing absolute dominance! Especially their flagship product, the 0402 inch ultra-thin, ultra-high-capacity MLCC, which is currently a globally exclusive product. This extreme miniaturization perfectly fits HBM3e / HBM4 and the next-generation GPU Nvidia Rubin architecture, capable of solving high-frequency decoupling and power supply stability issues for high-power GPUs and HBM in a very small physical space. This should be considered a core fortress in the era of high-density computing power. Even the first-tier competitors like Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Taiyo Yuden are still chasing and unable to achieve mass production! Additionally, from the latest financial report data 📊, this might be one of the few AI hardware companies I am willing to invest in right now. After this pullback, its forward PE is only 22.2 times (currently 72 times)! Combined with the benefit of yen depreciation, it will also help its performance realization. Currently, with a conservative estimate at a 1:150 USD exchange rate, the net profit for 2026/27 is very likely to reach 328 billion yen, corresponding to an EPS of about 180 yen. The forward PE will significantly drop to 22.2 times, which is very attractive compared to hardware companies with PE ratios often over 100 times! By the way, my favorite Micron (#MU) has now fallen back, and its forward PE has dropped below 10 times. If it can be bought under $800, that would also be very attractive! 🧐

Went around Shenzhen Huaqiangbei today! A good brother told me, should I stock up on some MLCC, ceramic capacitors! This thing has risen 30% in a month, even crazier than stock trading! 😂 Then I took a look at the MLCC leader, Murata (#MRAAY), its stock price rose 89% last month, really impressive, looks like I need to hit the front lines more often! Is this price increase sustainable? What does everyone think? 🧐

Today, there’s really a lot of FUD about #BTC in foreign media. Could MicroStrategy become the biggest bombshell of this cycle?! Last night, $STRC closed down to 94.65. Honestly, I’m a bit nervous too! Today I happened to discuss this with a friend, and we touched on one point: "Why does MicroStrategy pay the market 11.5% or even 13% interest?" Is it because they’re generously doing charity? Of course not. As everyone knows, the current risk-free rate, the 10-year US Treasury yield, is only about 4.5%. That extra 700 to 850 basis points is actually a "risk premium" they pay with their lives. This yield essentially tells the market that the risk is significant. Currently, junk bonds rated CCC pay about 12% interest. But if you buy such bonds, the risk is that there’s a 24.5% chance of total loss within a year, and a 43% chance of not surviving three years. In the end, my friend and I agreed that such high interest rates are theoretically unsustainable in a counter-cyclical environment, and there’s no such thing as a free lunch! From the actual situation, only two institutional investors who really understand the market have invested in STRC so far. And one of them is a passive index-tracking preferred stock fund, basically bought automatically by a machine. So finally, we discussed the core issue: how to fix this situation! Let’s speculate on some possible moves Strategy might make next, and it seems none of the outcomes are good for #BTC! If MicroStrategy sells MSTR to pay dividends, that’s a complete Ponzi scheme. If MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin to pay dividends, that’s a classic death spiral. If MicroStrategy sells STRC to buy Bitcoin, our common shareholders’ stakes will be diluted to nothing. If Strategy uses its USD reserves to repay debt, that’s basically a slow suicide. The only rescue plans now are either Trump shouting out loud, a structural bill passing, or the US BTC reserve bill getting approved! Right now, it’s really a bit hopeless. It feels like every cycle there’s a company sacrificed. Just keep dollar-cost averaging slowly, don’t go all in at once. Long term, still bullish on #BTC hitting $500,000!! 🧐

In June, I started gradually shrinking my US stock positions and steadily dollar-cost averaging to bottom-fish #BTC! I've been using #OKX's dual currency earning plan to bottom-fish, which is quite stable! Recently, one 65000 contract has been exercised, which I find acceptable. My plan is to keep dollar-cost averaging from 65000 down to 50000! Simmons once said, "Our trading model tends to buy stocks that have recently fallen out of favor and sell those that have recently been favored." The greatest truths are simple, but knowing them is easy and doing them is hard 🧐